Swan may not get his surplus, says economic forecaster

THE shortfall in mining tax receipts and continued softness in China's economy could see the Federal Government's $1.1 billion budget surplus turn into a $4.2 billion deficit next year, a leading economics forecaster revealed on Monday.

But Treasurer Wayne Swan told ABC Radio he believed the Deloitte Access Economics budget update was wrong.

"The mid-year review shows the Government is on track to return the budget to surplus," he said.

"But, of course, we know that we have to write down revenues substantially in the mid-year review and we wrote them down by $22 billion."

The economics forecaster wrote that assuming no further policy changes, the 2012-13 surplus would turn into a $4.2billion deficit - $5.3billion worse than Treasury forecasts released in the Mid Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook.

"Our own forecast for resources rent taxes is that they'll fall shy of the newly released official estimates by $3.3 billion in 2012-13, with company tax and 'other individuals' falling short by a further $2billion," the Deloitte report said.

"We see the mining tax providing the worst news

."Although most press reports cite $2 billion as the Government's latest mining tax estimate for 2012-13, that's after other taxes are netted out, with the gross payment closer to $3.5billion."