The Cup tips you can bank on
THE Macquarie Bank Quant team have delivered their annual Melbourne Cup tips transforming racing stats into traditional quant signals to rank the runners in the 2019 Melbourne Cup.
The tsars of statistical analysis have analysed the field using five key categories:
* Value - cheapness, what you get for the price
* Momentum - what is working, what is getting better?
* Sentiment - what people like
* Quality - what is best, the most reliable and,
* Inovative Data - what other data sources give an information edge.
THE TOP PICK
The top rating horse is a local hope No.18 Surprise Baby - a horse that form expert Ron Dufficy rates a top-three chance.
Dufficy rates the son of 2009 Cup winner Shocking as his third best in the race and wrote that "Surprise baby as a terrific winning strike-rate for a stayer with five wins from 10 starts.
"His Adelaide Cup win after a 2000m lead-up at just his sixth start was unbelievable. His two lead-up runs have been solid, he has a big set of lungs on him and will be hard to beat."
THE TRIFECTA TIP
The number crunchers recommend boxing the 'top-quartile' (first six of 24 runners for the non-numerical among us) of horses and those are:
1. #18 Surprise Baby
2. #23 Vow And Declare
3. #11 Finche
4. #1 Cross Counter
5. #2 Mer De Glace
6. #19 Constaninople
A six-horse boxed trifecta creates 120 combinations so if you outlay $60 you will collect 50 per cent of the dividend should any three of the horses listed above fill the first three places.